Federal Reserve officials are hedging about how much rising productivity will help return inflation to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, reiterating this week they need to keep interest rates at current levels until it becomes clearer that price pressures will ease.

Interest rates are likely to edge lower in 2026 as the Fed weighs inflation, jobs and political pressure. See what forecasts suggest for the year ahead.

Wall Street's relationship with the Trump administration is souring. Bank executives warned the White House on Tuesday that President Trump's policies and the Justice Department's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could harm the economy.

In 2026 the FOMC is expected to move interest rates slightly lower, with perhaps one or two cuts on current estimates.

Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Department of Justice served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas. Powell says it’s all a sham. But the stakes are unprecedented: A potential criminal indictment.

By analyzing the government’s tariff revenue and the value of imports, the economists concluded that the actual U.S. tariff rate was 14.1 percent at the end of September. The figure is about half the tariff rate that the administration had officially announced.